On Wednesday (March 12), in the early Asian session, US crude oil rose slightly, trading around $66.64 per barrel. The US dollar index fell 0.5% on Tuesday, hitting a new low in 2025, pushing up oil prices, but the gains were limited due to increasing concerns about the slowdown in the US economy and the impact of tariffs on global economic growth.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that US crude oil production will reach 13.61 million barrels per day in 2025, far exceeding previous expectations. The API crude oil inventory in the United States increased by 4.247 million barrels last week, exceeding market expectations, reflecting the pressure on the supply side, which may have a certain suppression on oil prices. The current oil market is mainly supported by the weakness of the US dollar, but factors such as recession concerns, uncertainty in tariff policies and US supply growth have limited the room for oil prices to rise.

From the daily level, the medium-term trend of crude oil remains in a wide upward channel, and oil prices gradually fall back to the lower edge of the channel. There have been many cases where one trading day swallowed up all the gains in the previous week, and the short-selling forces are more dominant. The medium-term trend of crude oil maintains a range of fluctuations and downwards, and the lower edge of the channel has been broken. It is expected that the medium-term decline of crude oil will start soon.

The short-term trend of crude oil (1H) has been consolidating at a low level for three consecutive trading days, with a range of fluctuations between 68.30-65.20. The short-term objective trend direction is oscillating rhythm. In the morning, the oil price adjusted narrowly around 66.50, and the long and short kinetic energy was stalemate. Still referring to the principle of small level obeying large level, the objective trend in the 4H week is downward. It is expected that the intraday crude oil trend will fluctuate mainly within the range. Breaking the support of the lower edge of the range will open a new round of downward space. Today: 67.50 short, stop loss: 68.40, target 65.30.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.